With the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations just days away, attention is turning from squad announcements and warm-up games to the bigger question: who is most likely to lift the trophy in Morocco?
According to Opta’s supercomputer, AFCON 2025 is shaping up to be one of the most competitive editions in recent memory.
Hosts Morocco headline the list of favourites, but history tells us that AFCON rarely follows a script. Using tens of thousands of simulations, Opta has assigned each team a percentage chance of winning the tournament. Here’s how the leading contenders stack up ahead of kick-off.
????? ?????? ?? ???? ???? ????? ?? ??? ???? ??
— Bet9ja: The home of #betBOOM! ? (@Bet9jaOfficial) December 18, 2025
Are you ready to go 1Up?!
Morocco – 19.1%
Morocco enter AFCON 2025 as Opta’s clear favourites, buoyed by home advantage and an extraordinary run of form. Walid Regragui’s side are on an 18-match winning streak, scoring freely while conceding just four goals across that period.
The Atlas Lions blend tactical discipline with pace and creativity, with Brahim Díaz and Youssef En-Nesyri providing attacking quality, while Yassine Bounou offers reliability between the posts. Even with fitness concerns around Achraf Hakimi, Morocco’s depth and familiarity with the conditions make them the team to beat.
Opta gives the hosts a 19.1% chance of winning the tournament and nearly a 30% probability of reaching the final.
Egypt – 12.4%
Africa’s most decorated nation remain firmly in the title conversation. Egypt’s seven AFCON crowns speak for themselves, but their recent history has been defined by near misses rather than dominance.
Mohamed Salah will once again be the focal point, chasing his first AFCON title after final defeats in 2017 and 2021. While Opta notes that Egypt are heavily reliant on their captain, their experience in tournament football and ability to manage tight knockout games keeps them among the favourites.
The supercomputer assigns Egypt a 12.4% chance of lifting a record-extending eighth trophy.
Senegal – 12.3%
Senegal arrive in Morocco with quiet confidence. Champions in 2021, the Lions of Teranga are now under the guidance of Pape Thiaw, who has overseen a strong run of results since taking charge.
With Sadio Mané supported by Ismaïla Sarr and Iliman Ndiaye, Senegal boast one of the most balanced squads in the competition, combining physical power with technical quality. Opta rates them as the most likely team to reach the knockout stages, reflecting their consistency across tournaments.
Their overall chance of winning AFCON 2025 stands at 12.3%, narrowly behind Egypt.
Algeria – 12.0%
Algeria complete Opta’s top four, despite recent disappointments on the AFCON stage. Since lifting the trophy in 2019, the Desert Foxes have exited at the group stage twice, but expectations remain high due to the quality in their squad.
Riyad Mahrez remains the creative heartbeat, while Mohamed Amoura’s prolific World Cup qualifying campaign has injected optimism. Opta’s model suggests Algeria are very likely to reach the last 16, though tougher knockout matchups could determine how far they progress.
Their chances of winning the tournament are rated at 12.0%.
Nigeria – 7.3%
Nigeria sit just outside the top four in Opta’s projections, ranked fifth with a 7.3% chance of winning AFCON 2025. That figure may appear modest, but history suggests the Super Eagles often outperform expectations when they reach the tournament.
Runners-up at AFCON 2023, Nigeria possess one of the most dangerous attacks in the competition, led by Victor Osimhen and Ademola Lookman. However, Opta flags defensive absences and a competitive Group C alongside Tunisia as potential obstacles.
Still, Nigeria’s record speaks volumes. In 10 AFCON appearances this century, the Super Eagles have reached at least the semi-finals eight times. If they navigate the group stage cleanly, they remain one of the most dangerous teams in the knockout rounds.
Jay-Jay Okocha is the star of Nike's new AFCON promo ? ?? pic.twitter.com/4yNjp9juOy
— Bet9ja: The home of #betBOOM! ? (@Bet9jaOfficial) December 18, 2025
Others to Watch
Beyond Opta’s top five, defending champions Ivory Coast remain a threat despite being outside the leading probabilities. Tunisia, Mali, Cameroon, South Africa and DR Congo also feature as potential disruptors in a tournament where margins are notoriously thin.
AFCON’s unpredictability remains its defining feature, and Morocco 2025 looks no different.
