Germany have already qualified, but I don’t think we’ll see Julian Nagelsmann’s side take their foot off the gas.
The squad depth is one of the biggest reasons I’m optimistic about Germany this summer. We saw it against Ivory Coast when Deniz Undav came off the bench and completely changed the game, and I expect some of the rotated players to make another statement here.
Ecuador have no choice but to chase the win if they want to qualify, which could make for a surprisingly open match.
Here’s my 51.00 Bet Builder.
My Ecuador vs Germany Bet Builder (51.00)
- Germany to win
- Both teams to score
- Deniz Undav to score 2+
- Moises Caicedo 2+ fouls
- Over 8.5 corners
- Over 2.5 cards
Germany To Win
I know some people are expecting Germany to take their eye off the ball in this match, but I don’t see it.
Germany have now won 11 consecutive internationals and the players coming into the side are hardly weak replacements. Undav, Goretzka, Amiri, Woltemade and Thiaw would start for plenty of teams at this tournament.
Ecuador couldn’t find a way past Curacao despite 15 saves from Eloy Room, and now they need to open up and attack. That should play directly into Germany’s hands.
Both Teams To Score
This is a Germany game at the moment. Goals usually arrive at both ends.
Both teams have scored in five of Germany’s last six victories, including the 2-1 win over Ivory Coast and the crazy 4-3 win in Switzerland earlier this year.
Ecuador need three points and can’t sit deep for 90 minutes. I think they nick a goal, but Germany still win the game.
Deniz Undav To Score 2+
Undav has made two substitute appearances at the World Cup and already has three goals and two assists. He scored once and assisted twice against Curacao before coming off the bench to score both goals against Ivory Coast.
With 25 club goals in 46 appearances this season and a possible start here, I think he’s got a huge opportunity to continue his charge towards the Golden Boot race.
Moises Caicedo 2+ Fouls
Caicedo didn’t commit a foul against Curacao because Ecuador dominated possession, but this should be a completely different type of match.
Against Ivory Coast he made three fouls and he’ll likely spend long periods trying to disrupt Germany’s midfield.
The Chelsea midfielder is one of Ecuador’s most aggressive ball-winners and I can easily see him reaching two fouls.
Over 8.5 Corners
The corner numbers are excellent.
Germany’s two World Cup matches have produced 9 and 11 corners, while Ecuador’s games have produced 8 and 9 corners.
With Ecuador desperately chasing qualification and Germany’s fringe players eager to impress, I expect plenty of attacking football and plenty of corners.
Over 2.5 Cards
The referee angle makes this one very interesting.
Victoria Penso has a strong reputation for using her cards in MLS, regularly producing matches with three, four or even five bookings. Looking at her recent games, yellow cards have rarely been in short supply.
Add in the fact that Ecuador must win to have any chance of progressing and Germany’s technical players will constantly draw fouls, and I think we see at least three cards.
Lukas’s Prediction
I expect Ecuador to make life difficult for a while, but Germany’s squad depth is becoming a major weapon.
Predicted score: Germany 3-1 Ecuador
Undav continues his remarkable form, Germany finish the group stage with maximum points, and momentum keeps building ahead of the knockout rounds.
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