English Premier League Analysis: Manchester City’s Rodri-shaped hole and Liverpool’s title to lose 

We are almost a third of the way through the 2024-25 English Premier League season, and the international break gives us a moment to take stock of the campaign so far. Several interesting subplots and narratives are beginning to take shape, as well as a few surprises, and no doubt a few more to follow. 

Heading into the season, many expected Manchester City to win a fifth successive title, albeit with the 115 charges for alleged financial breaches hanging over their heads. Some believed this was the season for Arsenal to finally get over the hump, after all, Mikel Arteta’s men had run the champions close for two seasons, and their fans believed the universe owed them one. 

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Liverpool’s title to lose? 

The one thing we didn’t expect was Liverpool topping the table after 11 rounds, and quite comfortably too. Arne Slot has done a phenomenal job since taking over, leading his side to 28 points from a possible 33 – their second-best tally at this stage of a Premier League campaign, after their title-winning season in 2019/20. 

Only 11 teams in history have matched or exceeded Liverpool’s current tally of 28 points at this stage of the season, and only three failed to win the title. Just a quick disclaimer; while it is premature to crown Liverpool champions after 11 games, history suggests they are in a strong position. Considering Manchester City’s injury troubles, this could be the Reds’ title to lose. 

What is happening to Manchester City? 

Speaking of City, Pep Guardiola’s men appear to be a shadow of their dominant, all-conquering selves this season. The biggest reason for their underwhelming performances is injuries to key players. Two of their three best players – Kevin De Bruyne and Rodri – have missed most of the season so far, leaving Erling Haaland to soldier on with very little help. 

Rodri, in particular, is a huge loss; any team missing the Ballon d’Or winner will struggle. The stats don’t lie: City’s record with and without their star midfielder is night and day. Last season, they lost just three Premier League games, and he missed all three of those matches due to suspension. 

Guardiola has attempted to find solutions for Rodri’s absence but the champions have looked far from their best with Mateo Kovacic as the holding midfielder. Even when paired with Ilkay Gundogan, there has been little to suggest that it could work. Kovacic lacks the positional awareness to prevent counter-attacks – as seen against Brentford, Fulham, Bournemouth, and most recently, in the 2-1 defeat to Brighton. 

That loss was City’s fourth in a row, and the first time Guardiola had lost four consecutive games since he arrived in England. On the flip side, Kevin De Bruyne is back from injury, which should provide a major boost.  

However, until they sort out their leaky defense and find a midfield combination that can make up for Rodri’s absence, it’s hard to see them putting together a sustained run of wins. 

P.S. Do not quote me on this, because you should never write off a team managed by Guardiola. 

Two-horse race? 

Is it really a two-horse race? Well, Arsenal are third, nine points off Liverpool, and no team has ever been 9 points off the top spot at this stage and come back to win. That is a long gap to close when you’re playing as inconsistently as the Gunners have been recently, especially on the road where they have struggled to put together a consistent run of wins. 

Could there be an outsider? That is extremely unlikely, but Chelsea look like a team on the rise, and it will be interesting to see what Manchester United look like under new boss Ruben Amorim. 

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