After the first international break of the season, the Premier League returns with a full slate of fixtures and plenty of betting opportunities.
From title contenders looking to respond to early setbacks, to newly promoted sides testing their credentials, Matchday 4 promises drama across the board. We’ve picked out some of the standout games and where the betting value lies this weekend.
Arsenal vs Nottingham Forest
Arsenal were criticised for their passive approach in the 1-0 defeat at Anfield before the break and Mikel Arteta will demand a response at the Emirates. The Gunners remain formidable at home, scoring five against Fulham in their last outing here, and they will look to reassert themselves against a Nottingham Forest side adjusting to life under Ange Postecoglou. Forest’s high line leaves them exposed, and while the Australian coach may not implement his full philosophy straight away, Arsenal’s pace and movement can exploit those gaps.
With both teams prone to defensive lapses but Arsenal carrying far greater firepower, this has all the makings of a goal-heavy contest where the home side come out on top. The best angle looks to be Arsenal to win with over 2.5 goals in the match.
Everton vs Aston Villa
Everton have made a lively start under David Moyes, picking up two wins from their first three matches, and the catalyst has been the revitalised Jack Grealish. Back in his element after his loan move from Manchester City, Grealish has produced four assists in two starts, dictating play and providing the guile that Everton lacked last season.
Villa, on the other hand, are still waiting to find the net this campaign, and the lack of cutting edge has piled pressure on Unai Emery. They will see this as a chance to reset, but against an in-form Grealish, the Toffees have a clear creative edge. The most appealing play is to back Grealish to register an assist at any time.
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Newcastle vs Wolves
Newcastle can finally focus on football after a turbulent summer dominated by transfer sagas. Eddie Howe’s men return to St James’ Park looking for their first win of the campaign, and this fixture against Wolves provides the perfect chance to get it. The Magpies have dominated this head-to-head in recent years and boast three straight wins against Wolves, who remain rooted to the bottom after three defeats.
Wolves have conceded eight goals already and look vulnerable every time they are forced to defend in transition. Newcastle’s home crowd will demand a performance and, with their new-look attack, they should have too much quality. Newcastle to win outright is the call.
Crystal Palace vs Sunderland
Palace’s 3-0 win at Villa Park before the break underlined the progress they’ve made under Oliver Glasner. The departure of Eberechi Eze has shifted more responsibility onto Jean-Philippe Mateta, who now looks the main man in attack. With penalty duties and a record of 31 goals in his last 75 league games, Mateta offers consistent threat.
Sunderland, promoted this season, have started strongly at home but away trips in the Premier League are a different challenge. Their defensive numbers suggest they give up plenty of chances in the box, which plays directly into Mateta’s strengths. Backing him to score anytime is the most attractive angle here.
Mateta is Palace’s main man and the pick to score anytime against newly promoted Sunderland @ 2.20
Bournemouth vs Brighton
Few fixtures scream goals more than Bournemouth against Brighton. The Cherries have scored in every match this season, including a deserved win away at Spurs, while Brighton head into the weekend off the back of a comeback victory over Manchester City. Both sides thrive in transition, both carry serious attacking weapons, and both are vulnerable at the back.
Brighton have already conceded more than one goal per game on average this season, while Bournemouth’s attacking metrics are among the league’s best outside the big six. It’s difficult to pick a winner, but backing both teams to score looks as safe as it gets.
Fulham vs Leeds
Fulham are still searching for their first win of the campaign, but history suggests this could be the moment. Marco Silva’s side have beaten Leeds in each of their last three meetings, and their home form often provides a lift. Leeds, meanwhile, have travelled poorly in the capital with eight straight league defeats in London.
Neither side looks prolific, so it may not be a high-scoring contest. Fulham should have just enough quality to edge it, and combining a Fulham win with under 3.5 total goals feels like the right angle.
Fulham’s home edge and Leeds’ poor London record point to a home win and under 3.5 goals @ 2.63
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Manchester City vs Manchester United
The Manchester derby takes centre stage on Sunday, and while City are usually heavy favourites, the early signs this season suggest the balance may be shifting. Pep Guardiola’s men come into this after back-to-back defeats to Spurs and Brighton, looking shaky and still searching for fluency.
United, meanwhile, may not yet be firing on all cylinders, but the numbers are encouraging. They lead the league in expected goals, touches in the opposition box, and total shots across the opening three games. Crucially, Ruben Amorim’s team have enjoyed the better of recent derbies: they won at the Etihad last season, took four points in the league from City, and the only time City have won in the last four meetings was via a penalty shootout in the 2024 Community Shield.
Form, history, and attacking metrics suggest United are live underdogs here. Backing Manchester United to win with both teams scoring provides value in what could be another dramatic derby.
United have done well in recent derbies – Back Man Utd to win with both teams scoring @ 6.60
Total Combined Odds: 706.59
Combined Booking Code: 3FCW358 | Click Here to Place Bet!
2 Comments
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