As the curtain falls on the CAF qualifying campaign for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, all eyes are on Nigeria as they head into the final match of the group stage with their hopes of reaching the tournament hanging by a thread.
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The Super Eagles have experienced a challenging journey filled with disappointment and missed opportunities, but a recent upturn in form now means everything now comes down to this decisive final-day fixture.
We break down exactly what Nigeria now need to do to secure their qualification for the 2026 FIFA World Cup:
Victory against Benin a must
Nigeria headed into the final two qualifying fixtures requiring all six points, and while they were successful in their first match against Lesotho – winning 2-1 thanks to goals from captain William Troost-Ekong and debutant Akor Adams – the victory did little to impact the Group C standings.
The Super Eagles remain third in the table, one point behind second-placed South Africa – who crucially dropped points against Zimbabwe in their most recent outing – and three points behind group leaders Benin.
That leaves the final-day clash with the Cheetahs as a must-win encounter if Nigeria are to have any chance of topping the group and securing their place at the 2026 World Cup.
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In order to qualify for the 2026 tournament, Nigeria have to deliver a dominant performance when they face Benin and secure a victory by at least a two-goal margin, as goal difference could be pivotal in deciding the group’s outcome.
Benin currently boast a +5 goal difference while Nigeria sit on +3, and as a victory for the Super Eagles would take them onto level points with the Cheetahs, Eric Chelle’s side must win by at least two goals to ensure they place above Benin.
Relying on results elsewhere & a second chance
However, Nigeria’s fate does not rest solely in their own hands, as Chelle’s men also need other results to go their way if they are to secure top spot and automatic qualification.
South Africa currently place one point above Nigeria, meaning Bafana Bafana must lose or draw to Rwanda on the final day if the Super Eagles are to finish at the top of the standings, while a victory for South Africa would end Nigeria’s chances.
While the Super Eagles could still finish second, only the four-best runners-up advance to the play-offs.
However, a ruling last week means these rankings are based without the results against the bottom place sides taken into consideration, given Eritrea’s withdrawal. Nigeria drew twice to Zimbabwe, meaning a win against Benin would put them on 15 points in ranking the runners-up, which should be enough for a play-off spot.
Permutations
If Nigeria beat Benin 2-0 and South Africa drop points vs Rwanda, Nigeria qualify automatically.
If Nigeria beat Benin 2-0 and South Africa win, Nigeria need DRC to drop points vs Sudan for a play-off spot.
However, If South Africa and DRC both win, Nigeria will need to beat Benin by 4 goals to get a play-off spot.
Will Nigeria qualify for the 2026 World Cup? Bet on the huge game right here at Bet9ja!
