Only two games of CAF 2026 FIFA World Cup qualifiers remain, and Nigeria’s hopes of reaching the competition are hanging by a thread.
The Super Eagles disappointingly failed to win any of their first four matches in CAF Group C, recording three straight draws before a lacklustre 2-1 defeat to Benin, leaving them with a mountain to climb in the final six fixtures.
While new manager Eric Chelle immediately improved their form, with a crucial 2-0 win over Rwanda, a devastating draw followed as Zimbabwe’s Tawanda Chirewa netted a 90th-minute equaliser as the game finished 1-1.
Nigeria bounced back with another win over Rwanda, thanks to Tolu Arokodare’s goal, but a 1-1 draw with South Africa in their most recent match left the Super Eagles on the verge of elimination.
However, a FIFA ruling against South Africa has given Nigeria a major boost heading into the final two fixtures, although the Super Eagles still have plenty to do if they are to achieve World Cup qualification.
Nigeria’s 1-1 draw with South Africa initially left the Super Eagles six points behind Bafana Bafana and three adrift of Benin, but after FIFA penalised South Africa for fielding an ineligible player against Lesotho – awarding Lesotho all three points – Bafana Bafana are back on 14 points with two games remaining, leaving Chelle’s side three points behind the top two teams.
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How can Nigeria qualify?
There is a slim chance that Nigeria can overtake just one of those two teams and qualify for the World Cup through the play-off route.
While the winners of the nine groups all automatically qualify for the World Cup, the four best runners-up have another chance to secure their spot as they enter the play-off route, but Nigeria’s poor start to the group has left their chance of finishing as one of the top-four runners-up as unlikely.
The current fourth-ranked runner-up is Burkina Faso on 15 points, while Cameroon, Namibia and Uganda all also have 15 points, meaning Nigeria would have to hope results go their way and overtake all four teams to have a chance of entering the play-offs.
Nigeria’s best chance is hoping results in Group C go their way and secure top spot in the standings, automatically qualifying for the 2026 competition.
Nigeria would have to pick up all six points from their final two games to secure a first-placed finish, while also needing to better both South Africa and Benin’s goal difference and hope they each drop at least three points in the final two fixtures.
The Super Eagles do take on Benin on the final day, which will provide them with a major opportunity to take the points from a qualification rival and could prove the difference between finishing first or being eliminated, although Nigeria must first defeat Lesotho.
Furthermore, Benin currently lead Nigeria by two goal difference, meaning the Super Eagles will be hoping the current group leaders lose in their other remaining match against Rwanda, or that they can overcome the goal difference when the two teams clash.
Finally, in the case of Nigeria winning both matches, South Africa must also drop at least three points in their final two matches against Zimbabwe and Rwanda, while the Super Eagles will also have to better their current goal difference of +3 compared to Nigeria’s +2.
So, while it is still possible for Chelle’s side to secure qualification to the FIFA World Cup, there is plenty that must go their way if they are to finish top of Group C, starting with a convincing victory over Lesotho on Friday.
Bet on Nigeria’s journey to the 2026 World Cup by backing the Super Eagles to beat Lesotho!
