The Super Eagles’ chances of reaching the 2026 FIFA World Cup suffered another crushing blow on Tuesday night as they were held to a 1-1 draw by South Africa in Bloemfontein.
An early own goal by captain William Troost-Ekong handed Bafana Bafana the lead before Calvin Bassey equalised just before half-time. Despite a more positive second-half performance, Nigeria failed to find a winner and now sit in a desperate position in Group C.
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Nigeria battle, but can’t find breakthrough
South Africa started on the front foot and were rewarded midway through the first half when Troost-Ekong deflected a cross into his own net.
Nigeria responded strongly. Ademola Lookman and Moses Simon combined well on the wings, and Bassey rose highest to head home an equaliser just before the break.
The introduction of Tolu Arokodare at half-time gave the Super Eagles more presence in attack, with the Wolves striker almost scoring immediately. But despite late pressure and seven minutes of added time, the breakthrough never came.
Arokodare the bright spark
One positive was the performance of Tolu Arokodare. After scoring the winner against Rwanda last week, the Wolves striker again made an impact off the bench in Bloemfontein, providing a focal point in attack that Cyriel Dessers had failed to offer.
With Victor Osimhen sidelined through injury, Arokodare has given the Super Eagles a potential long-term option to lead the line.
Group C picture looks bleak
The result leaves South Africa top on 17 points, while Nigeria sit on 11 points, level with Rwanda. Benin’s 4-0 victory over Lesotho later in the evening pushed them into second place on goal difference, leaving Nigeria third with just two matches remaining.
The margin for error is now gone. To qualify directly, Nigeria must win their last two matches against Lesotho and Benin while hoping South Africa lose both games.
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What is going right or wrong? ?? pic.twitter.com/biDs9qO57W
What does Nigeria need to qualify?
This is where the challenge becomes nearly impossible. As analyst Nahuel Lanzon put it, Nigeria still have a chance – but it’s “like winning the lottery. Twice.”
- Nigeria must win and score heavily in their last two games against Lesotho and Benin.
- South Africa must lose both of their matches.
- Rwanda must not surpass Nigeria on goal difference.
Even if Nigeria do finish second with 17 points, the road is no easier. Only four of the best runners-up across all groups will reach the playoffs, and most projections suggest second-placed sides will finish with more than 17 points.
Gabon, Ivory Coast, and Cameroon are already ahead of that tally. For Nigeria to sneak in, multiple results elsewhere would need to go their way – an outcome that, barring a miracle, looks almost unreachable.
If Nigeria fail to qualify, it will mark the first time since our debut in 1994 that the Super Eagles have missed back-to-back World Cups.
