FIFA World Cup 2026 is nearly here – and with 48 teams, 104 matches and more possible outcomes than ever before, predicting who will lift the trophy in New York is almost impossible.
Fortunately, Bet9ja’s revolutionary Simulate feature allows fans to create alternate football realities in seconds. Using WC Sim 26, we ran the tournament 10,000 times to uncover the most common trends, surprise stories and likely champions.
The results produced some fascinating outcomes.
If you haven’t tried Simulate yet, it’s simple. Add football selections to your betslip, switch on Simulate and have your matches settled in seconds. WC Sim 26 takes things a step further, allowing you to pick up to six teams to win the World Cup and cash in if any of them lift the trophy.
So what happened when we let the tournament play out 10,000 times.
Group Stage: Japan Shock the Dutch as Favourites Progress
The traditional powers largely avoided any major scares. Spain, France, England, Argentina, Portugal and Brazil all topped their groups in over 60% of simulations, while Germany emerged as the clear winners of Group E.
The biggest surprise came in Group F, where Japan finished above the Netherlands in 43% of simulations. After stunning Spain and Germany four years ago, the Samurai Blue once again proved capable of upsetting one of Europe’s elite nations.
| Group | Most Common Winner | % | Most Common Runner-Up | % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | Mexico | 62% | South Korea | 24% |
| B | Switzerland | 54% | Canada | 29% |
| C | Brazil | 67% | Morocco | 21% |
| D | Türkiye | 41% | USA | 38% |
| E | Germany | 73% | Ecuador | 17% |
| F | Japan | 43% | Netherlands | 39% |
| G | Belgium | 58% | Egypt | 26% |
| H | Spain | 76% | Uruguay | 15% |
| I | France | 61% | Senegal | 28% |
| J | Argentina | 69% | Austria | 22% |
| K | Portugal | 64% | Colombia | 24% |
| L | England | 68% | Croatia | 20% |
Round of 32 and 16: Morocco Lead Africa’s Charge
The new Round of 32 produced some fascinating storylines.
Morocco continued their reputation as tournament specialists, beating Japan and South Korea to reach the quarter-finals in 31% of simulations. Portugal also impressed, eliminating Norway and Switzerland before setting up a heavyweight clash with Argentina.
By the end of the Round of 16, the most common quarter-finalists were Brazil, England, Argentina, Portugal, France, Morocco, Spain and Belgium.
Quarter-Finals: Giants face off
The quarter-finals featured a mix of familiar giants and emerging challengers.
England edged past Brazil, France overcame Morocco and Spain ended Belgium’s challenge to continue their march through the tournament.
Perhaps the most fascinating tie saw Argentina face Portugal. In a match that would pit Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo against each other one final time on football’s biggest stage, Argentina emerged victorious in many of our simulations, eventually advancing on penalties.
Semi-Finals: England Dream, Spain Deliver
By the semi-final stage, the strongest teams had separated themselves from the pack. Spain reached the final four in 39% of simulations, ahead of France (34%), England (31%) and Argentina (28%).
One semi-final repeatedly emerged from the data: Spain against France.
The reigning European champions often found a way through, defeating Les Bleus to book their place in the final.
On the other side of the draw, England frequently met Argentina. In one of the most common outcomes generated by WC Sim 26, the Three Lions edged a dramatic contest 3-2 to reach their first World Cup Final in 60 years.
The Most Common Final
Across our 10,000 simulations, one final appeared more than any other: Spain versus England.
Spain reached the final in 26% of simulations, ahead of France (21%), England (19%) and Argentina (17%).
Unfortunately for England supporters, the outcome was all too familiar. Our most common scoreline saw Spain repeat what they did in the Euro 2024 final; defeat England 2-1 and become champions.
The 2010 winners enter the competition as favourites at Bet9ja, and our simulations suggest they deserve that status.
Our 10,000 Simulation Winner Projections
After running the tournament 10,000 times, these were the nations that lifted the trophy most frequently.
| Team | Quarter-Final | Semi-Final | Final | Winner |
| Spain | 56% | 39% | 26% | 14.8% |
| France | 49% | 34% | 21% | 12.6% |
| England | 51% | 31% | 19% | 11.4% |
| Argentina | 46% | 28% | 17% | 10.1% |
| Portugal | 42% | 24% | 14% | 8.5% |
| Brazil | 40% | 22% | 13% | 7.8% |
| Germany | 35% | 18% | 10% | 5.6% |
| Belgium | 31% | 15% | 8% | 3.5% |
| Netherlands | 30% | 14% | 7% | 3.2% |
| Morocco | 31% | 13% | 6% | 2.4% |
| Colombia | 27% | 12% | 5% | 2.1% |
| Uruguay | 24% | 10% | 4% | 1.8% |
| Switzerland | 23% | 9% | 4% | 1.7% |
| Japan | 22% | 9% | 3% | 1.5% |
| Türkiye | 21% | 8% | 3% | 1.4% |
| Mexico | 20% | 8% | 3% | 1.3% |
| Senegal | 18% | 7% | 3% | 1.1% |
| Austria | 17% | 6% | 2% | 0.9% |
| USA | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0.8% |
| Croatia | 15% | 5% | 2% | 0.7% |
Spain finished top of the pile, but there was remarkably little separating the leading contenders.
France, England and Argentina all lifted the trophy in more than 10% of simulations, while Portugal emerged as the strongest challenger outside the traditional favourites.
Morocco were Africa’s highest-ranked nation, Japan consistently outperformed expectations and the USA made use of home advantage.
Create Your Own World Cup Story
Think Spain will justify favouritism? Fancy England to end the wait? Backing a dark horse?
With WC Sim 26, you can build your own World Cup predictions and settle them in seconds using Bet9ja’s Simulate feature.
Plus, players using Simulate during the promotional period can qualify for up to N25,000 in Free Bets. Click the link below for full details.
All odds correct at time of writing.
