It all comes down to one night. Matchday 8 is nearly here, with all 18 UEFA Champions League games kicking off at 9pm tomorrow night. With the league-phase table packed from places 6 to 24, one goal or one swing result could decide who goes straight into the round of 16, who drops into the playoffs, and who is out of Europe completely.
We ran 1,000 simulations using Bet9ja Simulate for every Matchday 8 fixture. Below is what the supercomputer predicts for each game, including the win probabilities and the most common scoreline it landed on across those simulations.
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Ajax vs Olympiacos
Home 46.5% | Draw 13.6% | Away 39.9% – Most common score: 1-0
Ajax go into Matchday 8 sitting 32nd on six points with a brutal goal difference, so it is simple: they need to win and they need help. Bet9ja Simulate does give them a narrow edge, with Ajax winning 46.5% of the 1,000 simulations, compared to 39.9% for Olympiacos, with draws at 13.6%. The most common scoreline is Ajax 1-0 Olympiacos, which would keep their playoff hopes alive and drag Olympiacos back into danger depending on what happens elsewhere.
Arsenal vs Kairat
Home 76.0% | Draw 20.6% | Away 4.4% – Most common score: 3-0
Arsenal are already locked into the top eight, and they are top of the table heading into the final round. Avoid defeat here and they finish first, and the simulations back a comfortable home night. Arsenal win 76.0% of the 1,000 runs, with the most common scoreline Arsenal 3-0 Kairat. Kairat are already eliminated in 36th, so this is all about whether Arsenal finish the league phase with a perfect record.
Athletic Club vs Sporting
Home 56.0% | Draw 13.4% | Away 30.6% – Most common score: 3-1
This game is huge for the home side. Athletic start the night 23rd, and while a win should put them in the playoff round, there is still pressure because the pack behind them is tight. Sporting are already guaranteed at least a playoff place, but still have a chance of sneaking into the top eight if results go their way. The simulations slightly favour Athletic at home, with 56.0% wins, Sporting winning 30.6%, and draws at 13.4%. The most common scoreline is Athletic Club 3-1 Sporting, which would settle Athletic’s nerves and likely keep Sporting in the playoff places.
Atletico Madrid vs Bodo/Glimt
Home 56.8% | Draw 22.4% | Away 20.8% – Most common score: 1-0
Atletico are already guaranteed at least a playoff place, but they need a win to keep their top eight hopes alive. Bodo/Glimt are 28th and must win to have any realistic shot at reaching the top 24. Bet9ja Simulate expects Atletico to handle it, winning 56.8% of the 1,000 simulations, with the most common scoreline Atletico 1-0 Bodo/Glimt. If that lands, Atletico stay right in the mix for top eight, while Bodo/Glimt’s campaign ends.
Barcelona vs Copenhagen
Home 92.1% | Draw 4.2% | Away 3.7% – Most common score: 4-1
Barcelona start Matchday 8 in 9th, which shows you just how tight the top eight race is. They are guaranteed at least a playoff place, but need a big win and some favours to jump into the automatic qualification slots. Copenhagen are 26th, so they need a result to have any chance of sneaking into the playoffs. The supercomputer sees it as extremely one-sided: Barcelona win 92.1% of the 1,000 simulations, and the most common scoreline is Barcelona 4-1 Copenhagen. That kind of win is exactly what Barcelona would need to force their way into the top eight conversation.
Bayer Leverkusen vs Villarreal
Home 48.5% | Draw 38.7% | Away 12.8% – Most common score: 2-1
Villarreal are already eliminated in 35th, so this is all about Leverkusen. They start 20th on nine points and a win guarantees a playoff place. The simulations edge Leverkusen but it is not a total walkover: 48.5% home wins, 38.7% draws, and 12.8% away wins. The most common scoreline is Leverkusen 2-1 Villarreal, which would do the job and put them safely through.
Benfica vs Real Madrid
Home 23.9% | Draw 22.9% | Away 53.2% – Most common score: 2-3
Benfica are 29th on six points, so they need a win to have any hope of reaching the top 24, and even then they would still need results elsewhere. Real Madrid are 3rd and realistically just need to avoid defeat to stay in the top eight. The simulations still expect goals and an away win, with Real Madrid winning 53.2% of the time. The most common scoreline is Benfica 2-3 Real Madrid, which would be the kind of result that ends Benfica’s hopes while keeping Madrid firmly in the automatic places.
Borussia Dortmund vs Inter Milan
Home 28.0% | Draw 39.6% | Away 32.4% – Most common score: 2-2
Both teams are already guaranteed at least a playoff place, and the top eight is technically possible but relies on a lot going their way. The simulation calls this one as tight, with the draw the single most likely outcome at 39.6%. Inter win 32.4% and Dortmund 28.0%. The most common scoreline is Dortmund 2-2 Inter, which fits a match where neither side wants to turn it into a reckless shootout.
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Club Brugge vs Marseille
Home 27.4% | Draw 31.5% | Away 31.1% – Most common score: 1-1
This is one of those pure Matchday 8 survival games. Brugge start 27th on seven points, so they are outside the top 24 and realistically need to win. Marseille are 19th on nine points, and a win secures them a playoff place. The simulation cannot split them: Brugge win 27.4%, Marseille win 31.1%, and draws land 31.5%. The most common scoreline is 1-1, which would leave Brugge needing miracles elsewhere.
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Tottenham
Home 29.6% | Draw 13.2% | Away 57.2% – Most common score: 0-2
Frankfurt are already eliminated in 33rd, while Tottenham are 5th and can secure a top eight finish with a win. Bet9ja Simulate expects Spurs to do exactly that, winning 57.2% of the 1,000 runs. The most common scoreline is Frankfurt 0-2 Spurs, which would keep Tottenham in the automatic knockout spots.
Liverpool vs Qarabag
Home 72.1% | Draw 22.3% | Away 5.6% – Most common score: 4-0
Liverpool start 4th and know a win locks in top eight. Qarabag are 18th on 10 points, so they are in a strong position for the playoff round, and even a narrow defeat might not knock them out. The simulations side strongly with Liverpool, with 72.1% wins and the most common scoreline Liverpool 4-0 Qarabag. That would push Liverpool deeper into the top four and still likely keep Qarabag in the top 24 depending on other results.
Manchester City vs Galatasaray
Home 52.5% | Draw 13.1% | Away 34.4% – Most common score: 3-2
City are 11th on 13 points and need a win to keep their top eight hopes alive. Galatasaray are 17th on 10 points and are well placed for the playoffs, with avoiding a heavy defeat the main concern. The simulation does favour City, but not by as much as you would expect for a home game: City win 52.5% of simulations and Galatasaray win 34.4%. The most common scoreline is Man City 3-2 Galatasaray, a result that would boost City’s chances of a top eight finish while keeping Galatasaray alive in the playoff spots.
Monaco vs Juventus
Home 29.7% | Draw 31.6% | Away 38.7% – Most common score: 1-2
Monaco begin 21st and need something to make sure they stay in the top 24. Juventus are 15th and already guaranteed at least a playoff place, but can still chase the top eight with a win and help elsewhere. The simulations lean Juventus, winning 38.7% to Monaco’s 29.7%, with draws at 31.6%. The most common scoreline is Monaco 1-2 Juventus, which would send Juventus up the table and potentially put Monaco in a dangerous wait-and-see position.
Napoli vs Chelsea
Home 39.5% | Draw 21.4% | Away 39.1% – Most common score: 3-2
Napoli start 25th, which means they are currently out. Chelsea start 8th, which means they are currently in the top eight. That is what makes this one one of the biggest swings of the night. Napoli need a win to have a real shot at reaching the playoff places, while Chelsea need a win to have a strong chance of staying in the top eight. The simulation is basically a 50-50 match: Napoli win 39.5%, Chelsea win 39.1%, and draws land 21.4%. The most common scoreline is Napoli 3-2 Chelsea, which would be an upset that flips both teams’ nights on its head.
PSV vs Bayern Munich
Home 28.7% | Draw 11.6% | Away 59.7% Most common score: 1-4
Bayern are already guaranteed top eight football, while PSV start 22nd and need a result to avoid being dragged into the scrap. The simulations heavily favour Bayern away from home, with Bayern winning 59.7% and the most common scoreline PSV 1-4 Bayern. If that happens, PSV are suddenly in real trouble and would likely need results elsewhere.
Pafos vs Slavia Prague
Home 29.8% | Draw 50.2% | Away 20.0% – Most common score: 2-2
Slavia Prague are already eliminated in 34th, while Pafos start 30th and need a win to have any chance of reaching the playoffs. The simulation does not give a confident “must-win” result for Pafos, though, with the draw landing 50.2% of the time. Pafos win 29.8% and Slavia win 20.0%. The most common scoreline is 2-2, which would be enough to eliminate Pafos.
Paris Saint-Germain vs Newcastle
Home 57.0% | Draw 22.9% | Away 20.1% – Most common score: 3-1
This is the blockbuster. Both teams start on 13 points with identical goal difference, both are already guaranteed at least a playoff place, and a win puts either side in pole position for a top eight finish. The simulation favours PSG at home, winning 57.0% of the 1,000 runs, with the most common scoreline PSG 3-1 Newcastle. That result would push PSG into the top eight and leave Newcastle heading for the playoff round
Union Saint-Gilloise vs Atalanta
Home 14.0% | Draw 21.9% | Away 64.1% – Most common score: 1-2
Union SG are 31st and need a win to have any chance of reaching the playoffs. Atalanta are 13th and already guaranteed at least a playoff place, but need a win and help elsewhere to try and reach the top eight. The simulation sees Atalanta as one of the strongest away picks of the night, winning 64.1% of the time. The most common scoreline is Union SG 1-2 Atalanta, which would end Union SG’s campaign.
If Bet9ja Simulate is right, this is the final table
Based on those predicted results, the top eight and playoff picture looks like this.
| Pos | Team | Pld | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Status |
| 1 | Arsenal | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | +21 | 24 | Knockouts (Top 8) |
| 2 | Bayern Munich | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | +16 | 21 | Knockouts (Top 8) |
| 3 | Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | +12 | 18 | Knockouts (Top 8) |
| 4 | Liverpool | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | +10 | 18 | Knockouts (Top 8) |
| 5 | Tottenham Hotspur | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +10 | 17 | Knockouts (Top 8) |
| 6 | Paris Saint-Germain | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | +12 | 16 | Knockouts (Top 8) |
| 7 | Barcelona | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | +8 | 16 | Knockouts (Top 8) |
| 8 | Manchester City | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | +5 | 16 | Knockouts (Top 8) |
| 9 | Atletico Madrid | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | +4 | 16 | Playoff Round |
| 10 | Atalanta | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 16 | Playoff Round |
| 11 | Juventus | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +5 | 15 | Playoff Round |
| 12 | Newcastle United | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | +8 | 13 | Playoff Round |
| 13 | Inter Milan | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | +6 | 13 | Playoff Round |
| 14 | Chelsea | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | +5 | 13 | Playoff Round |
| 15 | Sporting CP | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | +3 | 13 | Playoff Round |
| 16 | Borussia Dortmund | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | +4 | 12 | Playoff Round |
| 17 | Bayer Leverkusen | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 12 | Playoff Round |
| 18 | Athletic Bilbao | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 | Playoff Round |
| 19 | Napoli | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 11 | Playoff Round |
| 20 | Marseille | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 10 | Playoff Round |
| 21 | Galatasaray | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 10 | Playoff Round |
| 22 | Qarabag | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 10 | Playoff Round |
| 23 | AS Monaco | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -7 | 9 | Playoff Round |
| 24 | Ajax | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -11 | 9 | Playoff Round |
| 25 | PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 | Eliminated |
| 26 | Club Brugge | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 | Eliminated |
| 27 | Olympiacos | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 | Eliminated |
| 28 | Copenhagen | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -9 | 8 | Eliminated |
| 29 | Pafos | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -6 | 7 | Eliminated |
| 30 | Bodo/Glimt | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 6 | Eliminated |
| 31 | Benfica | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -5 | 6 | Eliminated |
| 32 | Union Saint-Gilloise | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 6 | Eliminated |
| 33 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -11 | 4 | Eliminated |
| 34 | Slavia Prague | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -11 | 4 | Eliminated |
| 35 | Villarreal | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -11 | 1 | Eliminated |
| 36 | Kairat Almaty | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -17 | 1 | Eliminated |
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The Supercomputer UCL Mega Accumulator
Want to go full chaos? If you back all 18 Matchday 8 results exactly as Bet9ja Simulate predicts, the accumulator comes out at mammoth odds of 145697.31!
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