The UEFA Champions League is back this week with this season’s new league phase kicking off across Europe. Last season saw PSG finally lift the trophy with a 5-0 thrashing of Inter Milan in Munich, but can Luis Enrique’s side go back-to-back? Or will the Premier League powerhouses push them aside?
Football data giants Opta and their renowned supercomputer have simulated the tournament 10,000 times and produced their favourites to win it all. Here’s a breakdown of the five biggest contenders.
Liverpool – 20.4% chance
Liverpool are Opta’s outright favourites, winning the Champions League in more than 2,000 of the simulations. Arne Slot’s men topped last year’s league phase but fell at the round of 16 to eventual winners PSG. With a squad now boosted by Alexander Isak and Florian Wirtz, the Reds are seen as near-certainties to go deep again.
Liverpool won all four of their home fixtures at Anfield last season, conceding just once, and topped the overall table with 21 points. In the simulations, they finished inside the top eight nearly 80% of the time.
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Arsenal – 16% chance
Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal are rated second favourites by the Opta model, with the Gunners winning in 1,600 of the simulations. After reaching the semi-finals last year, they have now played more Champions League matches without winning the trophy (211) than any other club. Could 2026 finally be their year?
Defensively, Arsenal look ready. They conceded just 18 goals across 24 matches under Arteta in the UCL, one of the best records of any manager. With a relatively favourable draw this season, their path to the knockout stages looks smooth.
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Paris Saint-Germain – 12.1% chance
The reigning champions sit third in the predictions, given a 12.1% chance to defend their crown. Only Real Madrid have retained the Champions League in the modern era, but PSG believe they can repeat after their incredible 5-0 win over Inter in last season’s final.
Luis Enrique’s side face one of the toughest sets of fixtures in the league phase, with Barcelona, Bayern, Spurs and Newcastle among their opponents. But PSG thrived under pressure last year, and with Kylian Mbappé and Ousmane Dembélé in form, they remain one of the biggest threats.
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Manchester City – 8.4% chance
Two years on from their 2023 triumph, Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City enter this campaign with just an 8.4% chance of success according to Opta. Last season was a disaster as they scraped through the league phase before being thumped 6-3 on aggregate by Real Madrid in the play-offs.
City’s domestic dominance has wobbled in recent months, and with Kevin De Bruyne now at Napoli, questions remain about their ability to deliver on the biggest stage again. Yet with Erling Haaland’s goals and Guardiola’s tactical nous, they cannot be ignored.
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Barcelona – 8.4% chance
Rounding out the top five are Barcelona, also given an 8.4% chance of winning their first Champions League title since 2015. Hansi Flick’s side thrilled last season, scoring 43 goals in 14 matches before narrowly losing to Inter in the semi-finals.
With Robert Lewandowski, Raphinha and Ballon d’Or contender Lamine Yamal, the Blaugrana remain Europe’s most exciting attacking side. Flick’s UCL record is staggering, with the highest win percentage (78%) of any coach with more than one game managed in the competition.
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3 Comments
by Augustine Asah
I love it
by Precious
Pls give me sure prediction
by Daniel200147
Today