One of the most fascinating betting markets on Bet9ja ahead of the 2026 FIFA World Cup is not who will win the tournament, but whether football will crown a brand-new champion.
The market is simple:
No (Brazil, Germany, Argentina, France, Uruguay, England or Spain to win) – 1.30
Yes (Any other nation) – 3.40
History is firmly on the side of the favourites. Across 22 previous World Cups, only eight nations have ever lifted the trophy. However, the expanded 48-team format and the strength of several emerging contenders means there is a genuine argument that 2026 could finally produce a new name on the trophy.
So which side of the bet offers the best value?
The Case For No (1.30)
The obvious argument is simple: the strongest teams are still the strongest teams.
Spain head to North America as favourites after winning Euro 2024 and possessing arguably the most complete squad in international football. France remain stacked with elite talent and have reached two of the last three World Cup finals. England continue to knock on the door, while Brazil arrive with Carlo Ancelotti in charge and one of the deepest attacking pools in the tournament.
Then there is Argentina. The defending champions still have Lionel Messi, Julian Alvarez, Alexis Mac Allister and Lautaro Martinez, while Germany can never be discounted once knockout football begins.
Collectively, those seven nations dominate the outright market for a reason. Most bookmakers expect one of them to win, and history suggests they probably will.
Backing “No” essentially means trusting that football’s established elite will continue their century-long grip on the trophy.
The Case For Yes (3.40)
The counterargument is stronger than it has been for years.
Portugal have never won a World Cup but may have one of the most complete squads in their history. Cristiano Ronaldo could be playing in his final tournament, supported by Bruno Fernandes, Vitinha, Rafael Leao, Bernardo Silva and Joao Neves. At 11.00 in the outright market, they are already viewed as genuine contenders.
The Netherlands are another obvious threat. While they have finished runners-up three times, they remain one of the biggest nations never to win the competition. With players such as Memphis Depay, Frenkie de Jong and Cody Gakpo entering their prime years, they have the quality to challenge.
Norway are the wildcard. Erling Haaland and Martin Odegaard have transformed expectations around the national team, and while winning the tournament may still be a stretch, few favourites would relish facing them in a knockout tie.
Could An Outsider Follow Morocco’s Path?
Morocco changed perceptions at the 2022 World Cup.
Their run to the semi-finals proved that non-traditional powers can compete with the biggest nations over seven matches. The Atlas Lions are stronger now than they were in Qatar and are Africa’s leading hope once again.
Japan also continue to improve with every tournament. They have reached the knockout stages in four of the last six World Cups and possess a squad packed with players competing in Europe’s top leagues.
The United States will have home advantage and the pressure that comes with it. While lifting the trophy still feels unlikely, co-host status could help them enjoy their deepest run in modern World Cup history.
Belgium and Colombia are perhaps the most intriguing outsiders. Neither are among the favourites, but both have enough quality to spring surprises if the draw opens up.
Where Does The Value Lie?
The head says “No”.
Spain, France, England, Brazil and Argentina all appear stronger than the leading challengers, while Germany’s tournament pedigree means they can never be ignored. If one of those nations wins, the market is settled.
However, at 3.40, the “Yes” side is arguably more interesting.
Portugal look capable of going all the way, the Netherlands are perennial dark horses, and Morocco have already shown that barriers can be broken. Add in the unpredictability of a 48-team tournament and there are more potential routes to an upset than ever before.
Verdict
If you’re backing probability, No at 1.30 is the safer play. History overwhelmingly favours the established winners.
If you’re searching for value, though, Yes at 3.40 is tempting. Portugal, the Netherlands and Morocco all have realistic ambitions of making deep runs, and World Cups have a habit of producing moments nobody sees coming.
One thing is certain: if a new champion finally emerges in 2026, it will be one of the biggest stories in World Cup history.
