As the UEFA Champions League league phase reaches its dramatic conclusion, the final matchday will decide who moves on and who falls short. With qualification for the knockout rounds and a coveted spot in the top eight on the line, the stakes could not be any higher.
We break down the permutations for matchday eight, looking at what every team needs to qualify for the knockout rounds of Europe’s most prestigious competition:
Who has already qualified?
Several sides have already confirmed their places in the knockout rounds of the Champions League, but only two have secured their place in the top eight places, with Liverpool and Barcelona already ensuring they move directly into the round of 16.
Elsewhere, Arsenal, Aston Villa, Atalanta, Atletico Madrid, Bayern Munich, Brest, Celtic, Borussia Dortmund, Feyenoord, Inter, Juventus, Bayer Leverkusen, Lille, Milan, Monaco and Real Madrid are all guaranteed to move into the knockout rounds, though all 16 could still finish in the top eight.
Who has already been eliminated?
At the other end of the spectrum, several teams have already had their elimination from the competition confirmed, with Bologna, Crvena Zvezda, Girona, Leipzig, Salzburg, Slovan Bratislava, Sparta Praha, Sturm Graz and Young Boys all exiting after matchday eight.
Battle for the top eight
Six places in the top eight are still up for grabs on the final day, and a massive eight teams remain in the fight to secure their direct qualification to the round of 16 and avoid an extra two matches in the two-legged knockout phase playoff round.
Everyone from 20th-placed Club Brugge, on 11 points, to third-placed Arsenal are in the fight, with each team requiring different points depending on how each result on Wednesday plays out.
Arsenal and Inter are virtually confirmed to finish in the top eight, but a point would guarantee their place, while Atletico Madrid and Milan are similarly almost certain to finish in the top eight, requiring a wild sequence of results to deny the four their place.
Seventh-placed Atalanta sit on 14 points, with Club Brugge just three points behind on 11, meaning all 14 teams between and including these places are likely to require a victory to ensure their place in the last 16.
Fight for qualification
19th-placed PSV and Club Brugge could still exit the competition, but both require just a point from their final match to ensure they place inside the top 24.
Below that, Benfica, Paris Saint-Germain, Sporting and Stuttgart currently occupy the final four positions in the top 24 with 10 points each, meaning all of them could still be eliminated depending on the final day’s results.
All four need a victory to ensure their spot in the knockout playoffs, while 25th-placed Man City, 26th-placed Dinamo Zagreb and 27th-placed Shakhtar Donetsk all still in with a chance of moving into the top 24 if they win their respective matches.
Interestingly, Stuttgart face PSG while Man City face Club Brugge, two matches that could determine the positioning of all four sides depending on the respective results. A draw between the former two and a win for City (required for them to progress) would see Club Brugge eliminated. Meanwhile, a victory for either PSG or Stuttgart and a win for City would see Brugge and the Citizens progress alongside the victor of the other game.
Predicted final table
1 Liverpool 24pts
2 Barcelona 21pts
3 Arsenal 19pts
4 Inter 19pts
5 Atletico Madrid 18pts
6 Milan 18pts
7 Bayer Leverkusen 16pts
8 Aston Villa 16pts
9 Borussia Dortmund 15pts
10 Bayern Munich 15pts
11 Real Madrid 15pts
12 Atalanta 14pts
13 Feyenoord 14pts
14 Lille 14pts
15 Juventus 13pts
16 Sporting 13pts
17 PSG 13pts
18 Monaco 13pts
19 Brest 13pts
20 Celtic 12pts
21 Man City 11pts
22 Benfica 11pts
23 PSV 11pts
24 Club Brugge 11pts
25 Stuttgart 10pts
26 Dinamo Zagreb 8pts
27 Shakhtar Donetsk 7pts
28 Leipzig 6pts
29 Bologna 5pts
30 Crvena Zvezda 4pts
31 Sparta Praha 4pts
32 Girona 3pts
33 Sturm Graz 3pts
34 Salzburg 3pts
35 Young Boys 1pts
36 Slovan Bratislava 0pts
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