The Last 16 of the World Cup has been going with form so far, but there is plenty of reason for some of the favourites to be cautious as the line-up for the quarter-finals is confirmed across the next two days.
While all four Last 16 matches played at the weekend were won by group winners, Croatia are tipped to change that on Monday, while the big names like Brazil, Spain and Portugal all go into their knockout ties on the back of defeats in their final group games.
Bet9ja remains the place to be at this World Cup, offering more than 160 markets on every World Cup match! Find here all you need to know about the final four Last 16 games.
Japan vs Croatia
Al Janoub Stadium
Monday 5th December, 16:00
This may not have been the fixture most fans expected to see, and after upsetting the odds in Group E, the next stage of Japan’s World Cup journey sees them take on 2018 runners-up Croatia.
Hajime Moriyasu’s team have become known for thriving in the face of adversity, pulling off two of the biggest surprises in the tournament so far when coming back from behind to beat Germany and Spain, both by the same 2-1 scoreline. That allowed them to top a group that even the most ardent of Japan fans may not have expected them to qualify from; especially after losing 0-1 to Costa Rica in their second game.
The stats suggest Japan thrive when playing in a more defensive system. They defeated Germany with just 26% of possession and after conceding nine attempts on target, before overcoming Spain with 18% of possession. Against Costa Rica however, they had a greater share of possession and managed more attempts at goal than their opponents, but came away with nothing.
Despite not being able to finish first in Group F, Croatia will be satisfied with their progress. A convincing 4-1 victory over Canada was sandwiched between 0-0 draws with Morocco and Belgium. They may have relied on a few Romelu Lukaku misses late on against Belgium, but in truth, they had been the stronger team for the first hour of the match and created plenty of chances themselves.
Zlatko Dalic’s team boast a revered midfield three of Luka Modric, Mateo Kovacic and Marcelo Brozovic, but aside from the win over Canada, they have been lacking ruthlessness in attack, and if Japan play with men behind the ball as expected, they could prove to be very difficult to break down.
Japan are once again second-favourites with Bet9ja, but their resilience and Croatia’s two shutouts so far mean we could see a draw at 3.15, with the tie being decided by extra time and possibly penalties.
Bet9ja odds (at time of writing): Japan win: 4.40, Draw: 3.15, Croatia win: 2.10
Brazil vs South Korea
Stadium 974
Monday 5th December. 20:00
Both these teams’ final group games showed you cannot take anything for granted at this World Cup, but it would take something special from South Korea to prevent Brazil from making an eighth consecutive quarter-final.
Tite made nine changes to his Brazil team in their last match against Cameroon, with qualification already assured after 2-0 and 1-0 wins against Serbia and Switzerland respectively. The fringe players that were given a chance to impress in that game did not give their manager much of a selection headache, as Vincent Aboubakar’s late goal resigned them to a 1-0 defeat, but their place at the top of the group remained intact.
The Selecao, who haven’t lost at this stage of the competition since 1990, have been involved in low-scoring games so far, but looked very solid when they played their strongest team in the first two games, as neither Serbia or Switzerland managed a shot on target against them. Neymar could be back from injury after missing the last two games, but even if he is not, the likes of Richarlison, Raphinha, Casemiro and Thiago Silva should all be fresh after being rested against Cameroon.
South Korea are one win away from reaching their first quarter-final since they co-hosted the 2002 tournament, and they caused a great surprise to get this far. Following a 0-0 draw with Uruguay and a 2-3 defeat to Ghana, they snatched second place in Group H when Hwang Hee-chan scored a 92nd-minute winner against Portugal to seal a 2-1 victory. Ghana’s defeat to Uruguay allowed South Korea to progress.
Paulo Bento’s team seem to be more comfortable when controlling less of the ball, as their two group games that produced results came with less possession than the opposition (44% against Uruguay and 38% against Portugal), while against Ghana, having 63% of the ball did not lead to points. This may be a good sign ahead of playing a team like Brazil, but it should also be noted that South Korea’s win against Portugal came in similar circumstances to Brazil’s loss to Cameroon, as Portugal made six changes from their previous match.
While we are yet to see Brazil hit top form in this tournament, the return of some of their star players should lead to them being too strong for South Korea, and Bet9ja is offering 3.55 on Brazil to win by one and 4.10 on Brazil to win by two.
Bet9ja odds (at time of writing): Brazil win: 1.28, Draw: 5.70, South Korea win: 12.50
Morocco vs Spain
Education City Stadium
Tuesday 6th December, 16:00
This is another Last 16 fixture that few onlookers would have predicted seeing, and after topping a group with Croatia and Belgium, the task gets no easier for Morocco when they face Spain.
Defensive solidity was a key factor in Morocco’s progress through Group F, as they conceded just one goal in their last game when beating Canada 2-1, and that followed a 0-0 draw with Croatia and a very impressive 2-0 success against Belgium.
That defensive record stretches beyond this tournament, as Nayef Aguerd’s own goal against Canada is the only goal they have conceded in their last seven games.
They will have difficulty keeping Spain out though, who scored in all three group games and thrashed Costa Rica 7-0 in their opening match. That was their last win however, as they followed that up by drawing 1-1 with Germany and losing 2-1 to Japan. Had Costa Rica beaten Germany, as they were on course to do at one stage, Spain would have been on their way home. That loss to Japan may have halted momentum, but it is worth remembering Luis Enrique made five changes to his team, and he is likely to rotate again.
The focus for this one could be on Chelsea’s Hakim Ziyech for Morocco, and former Chelsea forward Alvaro Morata for Spain. Ziyech scored the opening goal against Canada and has been far more impressive for his country than his club in recent times. Morata scored in all three group games, but did not start in the opening two matches, and he has given his manager something to think about.
Ziyech is priced at 8.75 to score anytime, while Morata is 2.65 in the same market.
Bet9ja odds (at time of writing): Morocco win: 6.70, Draw: 3.85, Spain win: 1.62
Portugal vs Switzerland
Lusail Stadium
Tuesday 6th December, 20:00
Both these teams go into the knockout stages on the back of two wins and a defeat in the Group Stage, and taking recent history into account, it is difficult to call who will claim the last place in the final eight.
Unlike with most World Cup fixtures, these two teams have played each other recently in competitive matches, as they met in the Nations League back in June. The points were split across two games, with Portugal winning 4-0 in Lisbon and Switzerland taking a 1-0 victory in Geneva a week later.
Portugal, who haven’t been in the quarter-finals since 2006, go into this one having lost some momentum when losing their final group game 2-1 to South Korea, but prior victories against Ghana (3-2) and Uruguay (2-0) meant they still progressed as group winners.
The defeat to South Korea was not reflective of Portugal at their strongest, as Fernando Santos made six changes to the team that beat Uruguay, but he perhaps missed a trick in not resting Cristiano Ronaldo. The 37-year-old was taken off after 65 minutes, but has still played a majority of the time in this World Cup. The likes of Bruno Fernandes, Bernardo Silva, Ruben Dias and Joao Felix should be fresh after being left out of the South Korea match.
Switzerland sealed their place in the Last 16 for the fourth time in the last five World Cups when they beat Serbia 3-2 in an entertaining deciding match in Group G. This contrasted with lower-scoring affairs in their first two matches, where they defeated Cameroon 1-0 and lost to Brazil by the same scoreline.
The victory over Serbia was a clear improvement on the first two matches for Murat Yakin’s team, who looked far more threatening after only creating three attempts on target combined in their first two matches, although they did manage to frustrate Brazil, who only beat them with an 84th-minute winner.
That is why we can see this being a close contest, particularly with Portugal being slow to get going in their first two matches. A draw is priced at 3.40 with Bet9ja, but we are looking at half-time/full-time odds of 4.90 for draw/Portugal.
Bet9ja odds (at time of writing): Portugal win: 1.95, Draw: 3.40, Switzerland win: 4.50
