The last week of the World Cup has arrived, and if the quarter-final action is anything to go by, we can expect some tight and tense occasions, with very little room for error.
The first semi-final sees the runners-up from the previous two tournaments go head-to-head, after both made it to the last four in dramatic circumstances.
Bet9ja is still offering more than 160 markets on all World Cup matches, and we’ve got all the information you need here ahead of an unmissable last-four clash. You can also check back in tomorrow, where we will provide a full preview of the second semi-final between France and Morocco.
Argentina vs Croatia
Lusail Stadium
Tuesday 13th December, 20:00
Last Friday brought some of the most gripping action we have seen in the World Cup so far. Croatia were clear second favourites to beat Brazil, and they caused the latest surprise in the tournament by winning a second consecutive penalty shootout after Bruno Petkovic’s late equalizer in extra time cancelled out Neymar’s opener.
Argentina then followed that up by holding their nerve in their own penalty shootout against the Netherlands, after losing a two-goal lead in normal time and conceding an equalizer in the eleventh minute of second-half added time.
What has become clear with Croatia across the last two World Cups is they have the ability to make it through ties without dominating the opposition or winning comfortably. Their shootout victory over Brazil followed a win on penalties against Japan in the Last 16. Lightning has struck twice in that regard, as both their Last 16 and quarter-final wins in the 2018 World Cup were also on penalties. As mentioned in our quarter-final blog, they are yet to win a knockout tie in 90 minutes in World Cups or European Championships since 1998.
The expectation here is Croatia will once again set up to rely on the ability to hit Argentina on the counter-attack. Their only victory in regular play in the tournament came in their second group game when they defeated Canada 4-1, but all their other matches have been drawn in 90 minutes, with three of them being goalless at that point.
They did in fact share possession equally against Brazil at 50% each, but Petkovic’s goal was their only attempt on target in response to their opponents’ 11. None of these points should be taken as criticisms, as they have consistently shown the type of resilience and solidity that can carry teams a long way in a tournament.
This is why they can cause Argentina problems. Lionel Scaloni’s team have played reasonably well across the tournament, recovering from an awful start when losing 1-2 to Saudi Arabia in their opening group game by going on to win their group and beating Australia 2-1 in the Last 16 before their narrow win against the Dutch.
Their biggest issue is not that their opponents are able to create many chances against them, but it’s how they deal with those chances when they are created. Netherlands scored from both attempts on target against them, and from a total of five attempts on target conceded in the tournament, four of them have been scored; goalkeeper Emiliano Martinez has only made one save in the tournament.
There is no doubt though that like Croatia, this Argentina team make themselves very difficult to beat. The Saudi Arabia shock is a clear anomaly in their form, as it is their only defeat from their last 41 matches. While Croatia have kept three clean sheets in regular play before extra time in the tournament, Argentina have not been shut out in any of their matches.
Meanwhile, Lionel Messi seems to be coping well with the spotlight being on him in what is widely regarded as his final chance to win a World Cup. Messi has scored four goals and assisted two more at the tournament; his strikes against Australia and the Netherlands were his first World Cup knockout goals.
Taking into consideration Argentina’s ability to score goals, and Croatia’s tendency to come back into games as they have shown in the last two rounds, we see value in Bet9ja’s odds of 2.19 for both teams to score. Recent form may also point to a draw at 3.40.
If you think Messi is due to keep his scoring run going, he is 4.65 to score first and 2.62 to score at any time.
Bet9ja odds (at time of writing): Argentina win: 1.86, Draw: 3.40, Croatia win: 5.10
